Exchange rate, interest rates and dollar-priced freight on the first trading day after the runoff, for importers, exporters and freight forwarders.
Brazil's Superior Electoral Court announced on 25 October 2026 the re-election of President Lula, with 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro. On the first trading day after the result, Monday 26 October, markets reacted sharply. The Ibovespa index fell 10% at the open and triggered the circuit breaker, B3's automatic 30-minute trading halt, for the first time since March 2020. At 11:26 (Brasília time) it was down 17.26%.
The spot dollar, which closed Friday at R$ 4.99, reached R$ 5.60 in the morning and stood at R$ 5.47 at 11:43, up 9.54%. Long-term interest rate futures rose about 1.8 percentage points: the January 2031 contract went to 14.46% a year. The National Treasury cancelled the week's auctions of fixed-rate and inflation-linked bonds and announced an extraordinary bond buyback. In the banks' reading, the market is repricing country risk while it waits for the economic team and the fiscal policy of the new term. JP Morgan downgraded its recommendation on the real and on Brazilian bonds.
<strong>Importers.</strong> A stronger dollar makes goods, international freight and import taxes more expensive. Import taxes are calculated on the customs value converted into reais at the exchange rate of the date the declaration is registered. Cargo whose declaration has not yet been registered will pay taxes at the exchange rate of the registration date, not of the purchase date.
<strong>Exporters.</strong> Dollar revenue is worth more in reais, and banks point to exporters as the sector relatively favoured by the weaker real. The gain has limits: imported inputs, freight and credit become more expensive, and higher interest rates weigh on production financing and on export prepayment through foreign exchange contracts.
<strong>Freight forwarders and NVOCCs.</strong> Freight, demurrage and detention, and origin and destination charges are contracted in dollars and invoiced to the customer in reais. On a day when the exchange rate swings more than 10%, the clause that sets the rate and the date of conversion decides who bears the difference, and a forwarder that has already paid the carrier in dollars must not be left with the loss. Open quotes and credit granted to customers now carry greater risk.
Our take
volatility is likely to continue until the government announces its economic team and fiscal plan. This week, check in every open contract and quote which exchange rate applies, from which day and who bears the variation; where the text is silent, adjust before invoicing, not after. Freight forwarders should shorten quote validity and review the credit given to customers with freight payable in reais.
Questions for your company
- Freight forwarders and NVOCCs: In open quotes and contracts, which exchange rate converts freight and demurrage into reais, from which day, and who bears the variation?
- Freight forwarders and NVOCCs: Which customers have freight payable in reais falling due in the coming days, and does the credit given to them still fit today's risk?
- Importers: Which cargoes have not yet had the import declaration registered, and how much do taxes rise at the exchange rate of the registration date?
- Exporters: Which foreign exchange contracts and prepayments are open, and is the cost of imported inputs already in the selling price?
In numbers
- R$ 5.47
- spot dollar at 11:43 on 26 Oct, up 9.54% on Friday
- -17.26%
- Ibovespa at 11:26, after the circuit breaker at the open
- 14.46%
- January 2031 interest rate future, up 1.82 percentage points
- 51.79%
- of valid votes in the runoff, according to the Electoral Court
The first trading day after the runoff, in numbers.
Sources
- TSE, Presidente do TSE anuncia reeleição de Lula e faz balanço do 2º turno (25/10/2026)
- InfoMoney, Ibovespa hoje ao vivo (26/10/2026; circuit breaker às 9h57, Ibovespa às 11h26, dólar às 11h43, DI jan/2031)
- InfoMoney, Tesouro intervém no mercado e recompra até 15 milhões de títulos prefixados (26/10/2026)
- Money Times/Reuters, JP Morgan rebaixa recomendação do real e de títulos (26/10/2026)
- CNN Brasil/Reuters, fechamento do mercado em 23/10/2026 (dólar a R$ 4,9896)
- Planalto, Decreto-Lei nº 37/1966, arts. 23 e 24, e Regulamento Aduaneiro (Decreto nº 6.759/2009), arts. 73, I, e 97 (câmbio da data do registro da declaração)
What changed
ANTAQ opens consultation to review services and charges at container terminals
ANTAQ
The board of ANTAQ, Brazil's waterway transport regulator, approved on 22 October 2026 Call for Input No. 06/2026, to review how services at container terminals are defined and charged, including the Segregation and Delivery Service (SSE). Contributions run from 3 November to 23:59 on 2 December 2026 (Brasília time), through the online form only, with a webinar on 10 November. The preliminary analysis does not foresee price-setting and has not chosen between the two best-rated options.
Gentil reading: For freight forwarders and NVOCCs, terminal charges with no clear basis fall on whoever organises the shipment, and the consultation is where that point reaches the agency. Decide by 2 December who maps the terminal charges in your operation, including SSE, and what to take to ANTAQ.
Siscomex goes offline from 08:00 to 14:00 on 31 October for a new version
Siscomex
Portal Único Siscomex, Brazil's single foreign trade window, will be unavailable from 08:00 to 14:00 Brasília time on Saturday, 31 October 2026, for the release of a new version, called Release Azuis. The version brings features of the New Import Process (NPI) and adjustments for the Consumption Tax Reform. The affected modules include the import and export declarations (DUIMP and DUE), cargo and transit control (CCT), drawback, the Authorized Economic Operator programme (OEA), customs inspection, customs transit, customs premises and Siscomex Remessa. Companies that connect through an API must adapt their systems, according to the Receita Federal, Brazil's federal tax and customs authority.
Gentil reading: Do not schedule any operation that depends on Siscomex for the morning and early afternoon of 31 October. Companies that connect their systems through an API should define now who, in the company and at the system vendor, is responsible for the adaptation before that date. The affected module your operation uses defines the risk, and the diagnosis requires a technical reading of the notice.
US orders talks on wind turbines and creates no new tariff
United States
The White House issued a proclamation dated 22 October 2026 on imports of wind turbines and their parts and components. The proclamation creates no new tariff and does not modify the steel tariffs of Proclamation 9704. It directs the Secretary of Commerce and the US Trade Representative (USTR) to negotiate agreements with partners and to report back with at least one update within 180 days. If the negotiations fail, the president may adopt other measures.
Gentil reading: For Brazil, the impact is indirect, and the proclamation brings no new cost by itself. Exporters of wind turbine parts and components, and the freight forwarders serving them, should map those shipments to the US, because the negotiations, and the measures that may follow if they fail, can change the picture.
Drewry: Shanghai-New York tops US$ 10,000 per 40-foot container
Freight
The Shanghai-New York route stands at US$ 10,166 per 40-foot container in Drewry's World Container Index of 22 October 2026. Shanghai-Los Angeles rose 2%, to US$ 8,007. Shanghai-Rotterdam rose 3%, to US$ 3,632. Shanghai-Genoa had the largest rise of the week, 5%.
Gentil reading: Drewry has no route involving Brazil, so the index does not replace the quote for your route. Freight forwarders and NVOCCs should check which open quotes have a validity period that covers further rises. Exporters and importers should verify in which freight contracts the price adjusts by an index.
Source: Drewry, World Container Index (avaliação de 22/10/2026)
Calendar
- 26 Oct
- Official gazette (DOU) publishes the notice for ANTAQ's Public Call for Input No. 06/2026 (publication scheduled, according to ANTAQ)
- 27 Oct
- Open meeting of the FMC, the US Federal Maritime Commission, at 10:00 a.m. US Eastern time, streamed at fmc.gov; open agenda with enforcement, consumer affairs and legal counsel briefings, and no rulemaking decision
- 31 Oct
- Siscomex offline from 08:00 to 14:00 Brasília time, for the release of the new version
- 3 Nov
- Comment period opens for ANTAQ's Public Call for Input No. 06/2026 (container terminals), through the electronic form
- 10 Nov
- ANTAQ webinar on Public Call for Input No. 06/2026
- 2 Dec
- Deadline for comments on ANTAQ's Public Call for Input No. 06/2026, 23:59 Brasília time
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